Monthly Vital Statistics
October 1997, Vol. 31, No. 8

Changing Trends in Abortions

Another major change is in the increasing age of the clientele seeking abortions. Figure 2 reflects this change: in 1980 nearly one-third (32.3 percent) of those seeking abortions were under the age of 20; by 1996 females under the age of 20 only constituted one-fifth (20.0 percent) of those seeking abortions. Conversely, from 1980 to 1996 the proportion of abortion clientele over the age of 24 increased from 32.4 percent to nearly half (48.5). Contrary to popular opinion, teenagers have constituted a minority of those seeking abortions since 1980. The trend toward older abortion clientele reflects a combination of factors including the aging of the population, the requirement of parental consent for minors3, and greater acceptance of births to unmarried mothers4 lessening the demand for abortions among teens.

Table 1 provides further detail on characteristics of women seeking abortions. Although Whites continue to constitute a majority of abortion clientele, the proportion has declined from 72.5 percent in 1980 to 63.7 percent in 1996. The percent of women seeking abortions who are African-American increased steadily from 25.6 percent in 1980 to 32.1 percent in 1990 and has remained close to that level. A trend which has remained essentially the same is the proportion of abortion clientele who are unmarried. Over three-fourths of those women having abortions are not married.

Table 1 provides additional information about the influence of marital status on the likelihood of terminating a pregnancy as is indicated by the interaction of race and marital status. Pregnancies to married white females are the least likely to be aborted - a trend which has remained consistent. Although pregnancies to married African-American women are also less likely to be aborted than those of unmarried African-American women, the proportion of married black pregnancies terminated is four times that of comparable whites. The greatest change has occurred among pregnancies to unmarried white females. In 1980 they were 1.8 times more likely than pregnancies to unmarried African-Americans to be aborted. By 1996 the proportion of unmarried white pregnancies terminated dropped by more than half and were essentially the same as African-Americans' termination rate.

Table 2 provides information about additional characteristics of abortion clientele. Reflecting the trend toward an older clientele, more of the women seeking abortions in 1996 have had previous pregnancies and previous abortions. Also reflecting the growing maturity of abortion clientele is the increase in educational level with an increasing proportion having completed 13 or more years of formal education.

The last item on Table 2 concerning gestation at the time of the termination provides an interesting perspective. Although the vast majority of abortions have always taken place during the first trimester (before the thirteenth completed week) of gestation, in recent years there has been a decided trend toward very early terminations (during the first 8 weeks) with almost half (48.5 percent) of all 1996 abortions occurring during this time period compared to 37.5 percent in 1980. The trend toward early termination may reflect technological development in the form of reliable early detection of pregnancy.

In summary changing trends in abortions include:

• a long term decline in both the absolute number and rate of abortions.
• a decrease in the proportion of pregnancies
• terminated.
• women seeking abortions are older with more
• previous pregnancies.
• earlier terminations.

This report has highlighted the trend in abortions over the past two decades and indicated some potential future changes. The growing proportions of women seeking termination of a pregnancy who have had previous births and/or previous terminations reflect both the aging of this population and the high rate of unintended pregnancy in Missouri as well as this country. One of the challenges presented by the potential greater availability of abortion would be to reach those women who are at highest risk of unintended pregnancy and assist them in comprehensive consistent family planning.

References:

1Since 1983 Missouri has not received abortion reports from Illinois. Estimates of Missouri resident abortions taking place in Illinois have been obtained since 1988 but individual level data are not available and therefore are not included in this report. Even with the Illinois estimates included the number and rate of abortions to Missouri residents continue to decline and are lower than the U.S. abortion rate by about 32 percent in 1994.

2CDC. "Abortion Surveillance: Preliminary Data - United States, 1994." MMWR 1997;45:1123-1127.

3Ellertson, Charlotte. "Mandatory Parental Involvement in Minor's Abortions: Effects of the Laws in Minnesota, Missouri and Indiana", Am J Public Helath, 1997:87:1367-1374.

4Bachrach, Christine, Stolley, Kathy S. and London, Kathryn. "Relinquishment of Premarital Births: Evidence from National Survey Data". Family Planning Perspectives, 24:27, 1992. Carney, Eliza Newlin. "Legitimate Questions", National Journal, 1995:27:679-685.

Table 1
Resident Abortions by Race and Marital Status of Mother: Missouri 1980-1996
	1980						1985							1990							1995			1996
	No.			Percent			No.				Percent			No.				Percent			No.		Percent	No.			Percent
White	15,717			72.5			13,738				71.5			11,765				65.6			8,866		65.0	8,916			63.7
African-American	5,556			25.6			5,105				26.6			5,767				32.1			4,235		31.1	4,447			31.7
All Other	277			1.3			303				1.6			340				1.9			430		3.2	534			3.8
Marital Status
Married	4,870				22.5			4,122				21.5			3,817				21.3	2,714			19.9	2,880			20.6
Not Married	16,581				76.5			15,023				78.2			13,901				77.5	10,717			78.6	10,871			77.7
Total	21,671							19,210							17,947					13,635				13,989
	1980					1985							1990							1995				1996
Marital Status	No.	Percent Aborted				No.			Percent Aborted				No.			Percent Aborted				No.		Percent Aborted		No.		Percent Aborted
Married
White	3,565	5.6				3,079			5.2				2,771			5.0				1,948		4.1		2,053		4.3
African-American	1,130	21.6				861			20.0				853			20.6				571		19.0		599		19.7
Not Married
White	12,076		65.2			10,644				55.9			8,890				42.2			6,813		31.9			6,758		30.4
African-American	4,331		36.4			4,213				33.8			4,837				31.7			3,603		29.4			3,757		30.0

Table 2
Resident Abortions by Selected Characteristics: Missouri 1980-1996
	1980				1985			1990		1995			1996
	No.		Rate	No.		Rate		No.	Rate	No.		Rate	No.		Rate
Prev Live Births
None	11,842	56.4			10,500		54.9	8,479	47.2	6,015	44.1		5,907	42.2
One	4,400	20.6			4,150		21.7	4,615	25.7	3,636	26.7		3,763	26.9
Two	2,997	14.1			2,938		15.4	3,114	17.4	2,534	18.6		2,755	19.7
Three	1,139	5.4			997		5.2	1,187	6.6	958	7.0		1,044	7.5
Four or more	731	3.4			516		2.7	552	3.1	493	3.6		520	3.7
Prev Induced Abortions
None	15,739	72.6			12,760		66.4	11,119	61.9	8,769	64.3		8,634	61.7
One	4,612	21.3			4,563		23.8	4,741	26.4	3,323	24.4		3,554	25.4
Two	1,012	4.7			1,328		6.9	1,474	8.2	1,011	7.4		1,226	8.8
Three or more	308	1.4			559		2.9	613	3.4	532	3.8		575	4.1
Education
<12	4,452	20.5			3,752		19.5	3,612	20.1	2,572	18.9		2,551	18.2
12	7,418	34.2			7,884		41.0	8,189	45.6	5,757	42.2		5,838	41.7
13 or more	5,135	23.7			5,620		29.2	5,705	31.8	4,952	36.3		5,098	36.4
Unknown	4,666	21.5			1,954		10.2	441	2.4	334	2.6		502	3.6
Gestation (Weeks)
<9	8,123	37.5			8,063		42.5	7,230	40.3	6,343	46.5		6,784	48.5
9-10	6,877	31.8			5,599		29.2	5,544	30.9	3,758	27.6		3,740	26.7
11-12	3,823	17.7			2,968		15.5	2,929	16.3	1,958	14.4		1,944	13.9
13-14	1,188	5.5			940		4.9	1,057	5.9	693	5.1		657	4.7
15-16	519	2.4			435		2.3	484	2.7	326	2.4		303	2.2
17-20	394	1.8			356		1.8	524	3.8	365	2.7		355	2.5
21 +	131	0.6			96		0.5	129	0.7	163	1.2		168	1.2
Total	21,671				19,210			17,947		13,635			13,989

Provisional Vital Statistics for August 1997 Live births decreased in August as 5,750 Missouri infants were born compared with 5,920 in August 1996. The monthly birth rate decreased from 13.9 to 12.5 per 1,000 population. Cumulative births for the 8- and 12-month periods ending with August show slight increases in numbers, but slight decreases in rates. Deaths increased in August as 4,228 Missourians died compared with 3,746 one year earlier. Cumulative deaths for the 8- and 12-month periods ending with August also show slight increases. The Natural increase in Missouri in August was 1,522 (5,750 births minus 4,228 deaths) compared with 2,174 one year earlier. Marriages decreased for all three time periods shown below. Dissolutions of marriage increased in August, but decreased for the cumulative 8- and 12-month periods ending with August. Infant deaths increased for all three periods shown below. For the first eight months of 1997, the infant death rate increased from 7.3 to 8.0 per 1,000 live births.

PROVISIONAL RESIDENT VITAL STATISTICS FOR THE STATE OF MISSOURI

August					Jan.- August cumulative				12 months ending with August
Item	Number		Rate*		Number		Rate*		Number		Rate*
	1996	1997	1996	1997	1996	1997	1996	1997	1996	1997	1995	1996	1997
Live Births	5,920	5,750	13.9	12.5	48,844	49,143	13.8	13.7	72,794	72,842	14.1	13.6	13.5
Deaths	3,746	4,228	8.8	9.2	36,577	37,245	10.3	10.4	53,876	54,761	10.1	10.1	10.2
Natural increase	2,174	1,522	5.1	3.3	12,267	11,898	3.5	3.3	18,918	18,081	4.0	3.5	3.4
Marriages	4,719	3,293	11.1	7.2	29,592	28,131	8.4	7.8	44,884	43,012	8.5	8.4	8.0
Dissolutions	2,056	2,087	4.8	4.6	17,103	16,546	4.8	4.6	25,617	24,881	4.9	4.8	4.6
Infant deaths	38	43	6.4	7.5	361	395	7.3	8.0	536	600	7.8	7.4	8.2
Population base (in thousands)	...	...	5,359	5,395	...	...	5,359	5,395	...	...	5,304	5,346	5,383

*Rates for live births, deaths, natural increase, marriages and dissolutions are computed on the number per 1000 estimated population. The infant death rate is based on the number of infant deaths per 1000 live births. Rates are adjusted to account for varying lengths of monthly reporting periods.

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